According to Forbes, the competitive landscape between Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT is shifting. Data shows that while ChatGPT maintains a larger overall user base, Gemini’s app downloads are now growing at a faster rate. A key engagement metric, average minutes per visit, now favors Gemini at 7.2 minutes, surpassing ChatGPT’s 6 minutes. This follows a period where ChatGPT peaked at around 7 minutes per visit in April 2025, while Gemini had previously dipped to 5 minutes in mid-2024. The recent release of models like Gemini 3 Pro and the oddly named “Nano Banana Pro” are credited with driving Gemini’s resurgence. This marks a significant change from 2022, when ChatGPT’s explosive launch triggered a “code red” inside a seemingly lagging Google.
The metrics that matter
So, what’s really going on here? The download growth is one thing, but that “average minutes per visit” stat is the real tell. In the world of apps and platforms, time is the ultimate currency. It’s not just about getting someone to install the app; it’s about what they do once they’re in. Hitting 7.2 minutes is a big deal—it suggests people are having longer, more complex conversations, or maybe actually using Gemini for multi-step tasks. Basically, they’re treating it less like a novelty and more like a tool. The folks at OfficeChai point out this dramatic trajectory reversal for Google. It seems the recent model upgrades are actually resonating with users enough to keep them glued to the screen. That’s a win Google desperately needed.
Google’s rocky road
Here’s the thing: Google’s path to this point was anything but smooth. Remember Bard? That early chatbot was a bit of a disaster, plagued by weird responses and an infamous inability to do something as simple as generate a list. It was so bad that, according to reports in Wired, staffers were literally huddling in hallways worrying Google would become the next Yahoo. Ouch. That’s a serious low point for a tech titan. They were the ones who funded a lot of the foundational AI research, and then they watched a startup eat their lunch in the consumer space. It took a two-year frenzy of internal re-organization, pressure from bosses “cracking the whips,” and a pivot to the Gemini brand to start turning the ship. Demis Hassabis of DeepMind is now bullish, touting their research depth, but man, they had to crawl out of a deep hole first.
The ads wild card
Now, looking ahead to 2026, there’s a huge variable on the horizon: advertising. This could be the factor that completely tips the scales. Some commentators are already speculating—what if OpenAI, under pressure to generate serious revenue, starts slotting ads into ChatGPT conversations? Imagine asking for a pasta recipe and getting a sponsored message for a specific brand of olive oil. That could be incredibly jarring. If Gemini manages to stay ad-free (or at least less intrusive) for longer, that could be a massive competitive advantage in terms of user experience. People hate feeling sold to, especially in what’s supposed to be a helpful assistant. So the business model clash isn’t just about tech specs; it’s about philosophy. Which company will users *tolerate* more?
Who wins the mindshare?
And that’s the ultimate question, isn’t it? For years, “Google” was the verb for search. The goal now is to become the verb for AI assistance. Can Google claw back that level of cultural dominance? Or has OpenAI’s first-mover advantage permanently carved out that space in our minds? The metrics show Google is catching up, but catching up isn’t winning. The race is going to come down to speed of innovation, trust in the outputs, and that all-important user experience. Will annoying ads derail one player? Will the next model release from either side be a game-changer? One thing’s for sure—the “code red” memos are probably flying on both sides now. Let’s see what happens in Q1.
