According to Business Insider, YouTube TV has become a $8 billion business that’s on track to hit $9.6 billion in 2025 and $11.6 billion by 2027, growing from just 2 million subscribers in late 2019 to about 10 million paying customers today. The Google-owned service is now the third-largest pay-TV provider behind only Charter and Comcast, with analysts at MoffettNathanson predicting it will pass both cable giants within two years. Disney’s TV networks including ESPN and ABC have been dark on YouTube TV for over a week in a high-stakes carriage dispute. While Disney argues Google can afford to play hardball given Alphabet’s $3.4 trillion market value versus Disney’s $200 billion, analysts say YouTube TV has become an industry titan in its own right with serious bargaining power.
YouTube’s real leverage
Here’s the thing that Disney probably isn’t thrilled to hear: YouTube TV isn’t some pet project that Google keeps around for fun. It’s actually generating serious cash and growing while everyone else in traditional pay-TV is shrinking. Think about that for a second – in an industry where cable companies are bleeding subscribers left and right, YouTube TV managed to quintuple its user base in just a few years.
And that growth trajectory is absolutely brutal for Disney’s negotiating position. When analysts are projecting you’ll be the industry leader within 24 months, you don’t exactly come to the table hat in hand. Raymond James analyst Ric Prentiss called this “indicative of YouTube TV wielding increased bargaining power,” which is analyst-speak for “they don’t need to take Disney’s crap anymore.”
The bundle question
Now, the big elephant in the room is whether the traditional pay-TV bundle even has a future. We’re already seeing sports migrate to standalone streaming services – Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime, NBA and NFL games on Peacock. That shift is accelerating cord-cutting, which ironically affects YouTube TV too.
But here’s where it gets interesting. YouTube TV might actually be better positioned than traditional cable to adapt to this new world. They’re already a streaming-native service, so pivoting to new content models isn’t the same existential threat it is for companies with massive legacy infrastructure. Basically, they’re playing a different game than the cable giants they’re about to surpass.
Why this standoff matters
So what’s really at stake here? For Disney, losing YouTube TV means losing access to what will soon be the largest pay-TV audience. That’s a massive hole in their distribution strategy. For Google, losing Disney channels means becoming less attractive to sports fans – and sports are pretty much the only reason many people still pay for live TV.
The reality is neither side can really afford to walk away permanently. But YouTube TV has shown it’s willing to play chicken, and that changes the entire dynamic. They’re not some plucky startup begging for content anymore – they’re the future of the industry, and they know it.
