According to Forbes, a new Forrester report predicts the Google-Meta-Amazon media triopoly will face major disruption in 2026. The key drivers are generative AI search engines like ChatGPT and Gemini becoming transactional platforms, a potential forced restructuring of Google’s adtech business by the DOJ, and the doubling of creator-led affiliate marketing budgets. The data shows 86% of US B2C marketing executives plan to experiment with new channels and tactics next year, with 83% intending to diversify their media mix beyond the big three. Principal Analyst Kelsey Chickering authored the report, which forecasts that agentic commerce will cut retail media ad sales by 20% and that Google’s restructuring could spark over 100 adtech M&A deals. The immediate outcome is a seismic shift in where ad dollars flow.
AI Search Isn’t Just Search Anymore
Here’s the thing: when Forrester talks about “agentic commerce,” they’re describing a fundamental behavior change. It’s not about getting a list of blue links to products. It’s about telling an AI agent, “Find me a weekend backpack under $150 that’s good for hiking and has a laptop sleeve,” and having it not only find options but complete the purchase within the same interface. That’s a direct threat to the entire premise of retail media networks, which rely on you visiting Amazon.com or Target.com to see their ads. If the transaction happens inside ChatGPT, their ad inventory basically evaporates. So brands have to optimize for a new kind of intent—cognitive and commercial search—where the goal is to be the AI’s recommended choice, not just the top of a traditional search page.
The Google Adtech Shakeup
This prediction hinges on regulatory action, but it feels increasingly plausible. If the DOJ forces Google to divest parts of its ad stack, it doesn’t just create one new competitor. It blows the doors wide open. Suddenly, a bunch of smaller, more nimble adtech vendors have a shot at the inventory and budgets that were locked inside Google’s walled garden. A 25% surge in M&A activity isn’t just growth; it’s a land grab. Private equity and bigger platforms will be snatching up point solutions to build the “next” full-stack alternative. For marketers, this is chaotic but potentially great news. It could mean more competition, better pricing, and actual innovation in a space that’s been stagnant for years. But the key will be navigating that chaos without wasting a ton of budget on flash-in-the-pan vendors.
The Creator Affiliate Gold Rush
This is the prediction that seems most locked in. Creator marketing has moved from “experimental” to “core line item,” and affiliate links are the natural, scalable way to tie creator influence directly to sales. What’s changed? The infrastructure. When Amazon and Walmart can onboard tens of thousands of creators into formal programs, and platforms like CreatorIQ integrate directly with affiliate networks, the friction is gone. The budget will double because it finally can. But this creates an internal challenge for brands: whose budget is it? The silo between affiliate marketing teams and creator/partnerships teams has to break down. You need a unified strategy, or you’ll just be inefficiently spending twice.
What It All Means
Look, we’ve heard “the duopoly/triopoly is cracking” before. But this feels different because the pressure is coming from multiple, simultaneous angles: user behavior (AI search), government regulation (DOJ), and economic models (creator affiliates). It’s not one challenger; it’s a fragmented army. The common thread is decentralization. Power—and money—is bleeding out from the centralized gardens into a wider ecosystem. Is this good? Probably. More competition usually is. But it also means more complexity for marketers who just got used to the “simple” world of three massive platforms. The era of easy, predictable media planning is over. The 86% of execs planning to experiment? They don’t have a choice. You can read the full report in Forrester’s complimentary guide for B2C leaders or the original blog post. Buckle up.
