According to CNBC, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives named his top five AI stock picks for 2026, selecting Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Palantir Technologies, and CrowdStrike. He conspicuously left Nvidia off the list, arguing the investment thesis is now about the “derivative of the AI revolution.” Ives claims for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there’s an $8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of the tech sector. He provided specific upside targets, stating AI could add $75 to $100 per share to Apple’s value and that Palantir has a path to a trillion-dollar market cap. Notably, Palantir’s stock is up 143.5% in 2025, while CrowdStrike has gained 39.1%, Microsoft 15.6%, and Tesla 13.8%.
The Nvidia Paradox
Here’s the thing that jumps out immediately: no Nvidia. That’s a bold call when that one stock has basically been the entire AI trade for three years. Ives isn’t saying Nvidia will crash; he told clients he’s still bullish. But he’s making a crucial pivot. He’s betting the easy money on the “picks and shovels” phase is made. Now, it’s about finding the companies that will use those tools to build the most valuable structures. His $8-$10 multiplier comment is the whole thesis. It’s a shift from betting on the arms dealer to betting on the armies that will win the war. It’s a second-derivative play, and it’s inherently riskier but potentially more rewarding if he’s right about the beneficiaries.
Dissecting The Picks
So, what’s the logic behind his fab five? Microsoft is the cloud infrastructure backbone for countless AI apps, and Ives thinks Wall Street is still underestimating Azure’s growth. Apple is the ultimate monetization story—can they turn AI features into a direct, massive per-share value add? Tesla is the wildcard, a bet that 2026 is the year its full self-driving and robotics narrative finally translates into an “AI valuation.” Then you have the specialists. Palantir is the entrenched government and enterprise AI platform, and CrowdStrike is using AI as the core of its cybersecurity moat. Basically, he’s covering all bases: cloud, consumer, autonomy, data platforms, and security. It’s a portfolio approach to the AI “derivative.”
The Execution Risk
Now, let’s pump the brakes for a second. This all sounds great in theory, but theory doesn’t move stock prices forever—execution does. Apple has been notoriously slow on generative AI; can they really accelerate fast enough? Tesla’s “monster year” for autonomy has been predicted for nearly a decade. And Palantir, up 143% already, has to execute flawlessly to justify a run toward a trillion dollars. Ives is making timing calls here, and timing is everything. The real question is whether these companies’ AI investments will flow to the bottom line quickly enough to satisfy markets in 2026, or if this is a 2027-2028 story. If the multiplier effect takes longer than expected, these stocks could stall even if the long-term thesis is intact.
