According to CNET, Apple is set to overtake Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025 for the first time in 14 years and maintain that lead through at least 2029. Counterpoint Research projects Apple’s global smartphone shipments will grow 9% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while Samsung only managed 4.6% growth. The iPhone 17 lineup, including the iPhone Air and Pro models, exceeded expectations with strong sales in the US and China. Analyst Yang Wang noted that 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025 created a massive upgrade opportunity. Apple’s global market share is expected to reach 19.4% compared to Samsung’s 18.7%.
The upgrade cycle reality
Here’s the thing about these projections – they’re heavily dependent on that COVID upgrade wave theory. Wang’s argument makes sense on paper: people who bought phones during the pandemic are now ready for new devices. But is that really enough to sustain leadership for five straight years? I’m skeptical. The smartphone market has become incredibly saturated, and upgrade cycles are lengthening, not shortening. People are holding onto devices longer because, frankly, year-over-year improvements have become incremental at best.
Samsung’s comeback potential
Let’s not count Samsung out just yet. They’ve been the global leader for 14 years for good reason – they’re incredibly resilient. While Apple dominates the premium segment, Samsung has a much broader portfolio across all price points. They’re also way ahead in foldable technology, which is becoming increasingly important. The real question is whether Samsung can capitalize on Apple’s delayed AI features. If they can deliver compelling AI experiences while Apple plays catch-up, that could change the momentum quickly.
The foldable wild card
Counterpoint mentions Apple’s anticipated foldable iPhone as a future growth driver, but that’s a huge gamble. Apple is notoriously late to new form factors – remember how long it took them to adopt larger screens? By the time Apple enters the foldable market, Samsung will have years of refinement and multiple generations under their belt. And let’s talk about that rumored iPhone 17E budget model. Apple has historically struggled in the budget segment – can they really compete without compromising their premium brand image?
Market dynamics shift
The smartphone landscape is changing in ways that might not favor either giant. Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi and Oppo are becoming increasingly competitive globally. And in emerging markets where growth potential is highest, Apple’s premium pricing remains a significant barrier. Meanwhile, the entire industry faces supply chain challenges and component shortages that could disrupt even the best-laid plans. Five years is an eternity in tech – predicting market leadership that far out feels more like educated guessing than reliable forecasting.
