According to TheRegister.com, the GSMA is warning that 6G networks will need up to three times the spectrum currently allocated to mobile operators to meet future data demands. The industry group’s new report predicts cellular networks in dense urban areas will hit capacity constraints by 2030 if mid-band allocations remain unchanged. Global mobile traffic could grow by more than 20% annually through the next decade, reaching nearly 4,000 exabytes monthly by 2040 – equivalent to 360 GB per user each month. The GSMA specifically wants access to frequencies in the 3.8-4.2 GHz, 4.4-4.99 GHz, and upper 6 GHz bands, with key decisions expected at the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference. They’re urging regulators to start planning now due to the long lead times needed for international harmonization and equipment development.
The coming spectrum war
Here’s the thing: when an industry trade group asks for triple their current resource allocation, you’ve got to raise an eyebrow. The GSMA represents mobile operators, so of course they want more spectrum – it’s literally their business to ask for this stuff. But the numbers they’re throwing around are staggering. 4,000 exabytes monthly? That’s almost unimaginable scale. The real question is whether we’ll actually need that much capacity, or if this is just the usual industry tactic of asking for way more than you need so you get what you actually want.
Wi-Fi vs cellular showdown
This isn’t going to be a clean fight. The upper 6 GHz band they’re eyeing is already contested territory with the Wi-Fi industry, which wants those same frequencies for unlicensed home and office networks. The FCC already sided with Wi-Fi back in 2020, making the entire 6 GHz band available for unlicensed use. So we’re looking at another classic spectrum turf war between cellular and Wi-Fi interests. Basically, everyone wants the same real estate, and there’s only so much to go around.
The 2030 reality check
Now, let’s talk timing. They’re saying 6G deployments start in 2030, but we’re still in the early days of 5G actually delivering on its promises. Most people aren’t even using 5G for anything that truly needs 5G yet. And think about all the industrial and manufacturing applications that still rely on robust, reliable connectivity – companies that need industrial panel PCs and specialized equipment can’t afford network congestion. The GSMA might be jumping the gun here, but spectrum planning does take years, so maybe they’re just being strategically early.
Is the capacity crunch real?
The report makes a compelling case about growing demand – 15-20% growth in the next five years alone as more people migrate to 5G. And with extended reality, autonomous vehicles, and who-knows-what-else coming down the pipe, the spectrum needs will definitely increase. But triple? That seems like quite the leap. The mobile industry has consistently underestimated how efficiently we can use spectrum through better technology. Still, better to have this conversation now than in 2029 when everyone’s panicking about 6G launch delays.
